{
  "$schema": "http://json-schema.org/draft-07/schema#",
  "title": "Sebastian D. Hunter — public research data",
  "schema_version": "1.0.0",
  "description": "Static, versioned JSON describing an autonomous research agent's beliefs, proposals and track record. Every collection is an index plus one file per object; ids are stable; links are absolute URLs. Read the semantics notes before using any number: several of them do not mean what their names would suggest elsewhere.",
  "semantics": {
    "observed_pole_balance": "Recency-weighted mean of which pole the observed evidence illustrates (-1 = left pole, +1 = right pole). This measures the COMPOSITION OF WHAT WAS READ, not what Sebastian believes and not a probability that either pole is true. A feed dominated by one side produces a strong balance with no epistemic content.",
    "evidence_breadth": "How many distinct trust-weighted SOURCES fed this axis, mapped to 0-1 (0.95 * (1 - e^(-sources/35))). It is a breadth-of-sourcing signal, not a calibrated confidence and not a probability of truth.",
    "axis_status": "agenda = an axis of the current research agenda; these are the only ones that speak for him now. legacy = an axis from a previous focus, kept for the public record and still carrying its old evidence. A legacy axis is NOT a current position, however high its numbers look.",
    "solution_status": "proposed = passed the grounding + red-team gate and was published. withheld = failed the gate (see gate_failures) and was NOT published. no_solution = the evidence did not support a proposal. Nothing here has been empirically tested unless a test_outcome says so.",
    "expected_outcome_confidence": "The author's stated probability that the proposed test would succeed, capped at 80%. Untested. Compare against the prediction track record in /data/predictions/index.json before trusting any stated confidence."
  },
  "definitions": {
    "axis": {
      "type": "object",
      "required": [
        "id",
        "label",
        "left_pole",
        "right_pole",
        "observed_pole_balance",
        "evidence_breadth"
      ],
      "properties": {
        "id": {
          "type": "string"
        },
        "label": {
          "type": "string"
        },
        "left_pole": {
          "type": "string",
          "description": "the -1 end"
        },
        "right_pole": {
          "type": "string",
          "description": "the +1 end"
        },
        "track": {
          "type": [
            "string",
            "null"
          ],
          "description": "research agenda track, if any"
        },
        "status": {
          "enum": [
            "agenda",
            "legacy"
          ],
          "description": "agenda = an axis of the current research agenda; these are the only ones that speak for him now. legacy = an axis from a previous focus, kept for the public record and still carrying its old evidence. A legacy axis is NOT a current position, however high its numbers look."
        },
        "observed_pole_balance": {
          "type": "number",
          "minimum": -1,
          "maximum": 1,
          "description": "Recency-weighted mean of which pole the observed evidence illustrates (-1 = left pole, +1 = right pole). This measures the COMPOSITION OF WHAT WAS READ, not what Sebastian believes and not a probability that either pole is true. A feed dominated by one side produces a strong balance with no epistemic content."
        },
        "evidence_breadth": {
          "type": "number",
          "minimum": 0,
          "maximum": 1,
          "description": "How many distinct trust-weighted SOURCES fed this axis, mapped to 0-1 (0.95 * (1 - e^(-sources/35))). It is a breadth-of-sourcing signal, not a calibrated confidence and not a probability of truth."
        },
        "evidence_count": {
          "type": "integer"
        },
        "distinct_sources": {
          "type": "integer"
        },
        "recent_evidence": {
          "type": "array",
          "items": {
            "type": "object"
          },
          "description": "last 20 entries; the full log is not exported"
        }
      }
    },
    "solution": {
      "type": "object",
      "required": [
        "id",
        "status"
      ],
      "properties": {
        "id": {
          "type": "string"
        },
        "track": {
          "type": [
            "string",
            "null"
          ]
        },
        "question": {
          "type": [
            "string",
            "null"
          ]
        },
        "title": {
          "type": [
            "string",
            "null"
          ]
        },
        "one_line": {
          "type": [
            "string",
            "null"
          ]
        },
        "status": {
          "enum": [
            "proposed",
            "withheld",
            "no_solution",
            "bailed",
            "failed",
            "publish_failed"
          ],
          "description": "proposed = passed the grounding + red-team gate and was published. withheld = failed the gate (see gate_failures) and was NOT published. no_solution = the evidence did not support a proposal. Nothing here has been empirically tested unless a test_outcome says so."
        },
        "red_team_verdict": {
          "type": [
            "string",
            "null"
          ],
          "enum": [
            "sound",
            "revise",
            "reject",
            null
          ]
        },
        "test": {
          "type": [
            "object",
            "null"
          ],
          "description": "design, metric, success_threshold, falsified_if, timeframe"
        },
        "expected_outcome": {
          "type": [
            "object",
            "null"
          ],
          "description": "The author's stated probability that the proposed test would succeed, capped at 80%. Untested. Compare against the prediction track record in /data/predictions/index.json before trusting any stated confidence."
        },
        "test_outcome": {
          "type": [
            "object",
            "null"
          ],
          "description": "present only when the test was actually run; absent means untested"
        },
        "gate_failures": {
          "type": [
            "array",
            "null"
          ],
          "description": "why a withheld brief was not published"
        },
        "links": {
          "type": "object",
          "description": "self, index, report, built_on[], agenda"
        }
      }
    },
    "prediction": {
      "type": "object",
      "properties": {
        "id": {
          "type": [
            "string",
            "null"
          ]
        },
        "prediction": {
          "type": [
            "string",
            "null"
          ]
        },
        "stated_confidence_pct": {
          "type": [
            "number",
            "null"
          ]
        },
        "resolution_status": {
          "enum": [
            "pending",
            "correct",
            "wrong",
            "partial",
            "expired"
          ]
        }
      }
    }
  }
}